In March, the CPI rose to 4.Will 3% more countries restrict the export of grain, will prices rise?

In March, the CPI rose to 4.Will 3% more countries restrict the export of grain, will prices rise?
On April 10, the National Bureau of Statistics released the March CPI (Consumer Price Index). From a continuous perspective, the CPI increased by 4.3%, a decrease of 0 compared with last month.9 averages.Among them, food prices rose by 18.3%, the increase fell by 3.6 averages, affecting CPI rose by about 3.7 averages.From a chain point of view, the gradual resumption of production and production in March gradually accelerated, transportation logistics gradually recovered, and the CPI increased from 0 in February.8% turned down 1.2%.Dong Lijuan, senior statistician of the City Department of the Bureau of Statistics, explained that food prices rose in March from 4 in February.3% turned down 3.8%, affecting the CPI drop of about 0.The nine averages are the main factors driving CPI to change from rising to falling.Wang Jianhui, director of Beijing Capital Securities Research Institute, told Sauna and Yeewang that the March CPI data indicated that food prices are still the main factor affecting CPI trends.Therefore, the epidemic situation is gradually controllable, the transition of the supply chain is disrupted, and the transportation logistics interruption and stagnation will be significantly improved, and the production and circulation of food will be more smooth.The pull-down action on the price level will also appear.In March, the increase in CPI fell back from the previous month. In March, the decline caused by the up and down of CPI and the width of the month-on-month increase across the month dropped by 0 from the previous month.9 digits, up to 4.At 3%, the month-on-month rise was directly reduced from ascent to an increase of 0 in February.8% turned down 1.2%.Among them, the role of food price rises and even chains fell “contributed”.From the highest point of view, pork prices rose by 116.4%, the increase has dropped by 18.8 digits; the price of fresh vegetables also dropped from a growth in February to zero.1%; fresh fruit prices fell by 6.1%, the decrease is increased by 0.5 averages.From a chain point of view, Dong Lijuan said that in the spring, the seasonal market volume increased, logistics transportation costs decreased, and the price of fresh vegetables dropped by 12.At the same time, through the transfer of live pigs gradually, the slaughtering enterprises resumed production and production, and the stockpile of stocks was gradually increased in various places, and the price of pork fell6.9%.In addition, due to the sufficient market supply, the prices of eggs, aquatic products and fresh fruit also fell respectively.1%, 3.5% and 0.2%.In March, non-food prices were also relatively weak, with non-food prices increasing by 0 year-on-year.7%, the increase fell back to 0.For 2 numbers, the price of transportation and communication drops by 3.8%, but the prices of education, culture, entertainment, and health care have increased, and prices have risen by 2.5% and above 2.2%.From a chain perspective, non-food prices fell by 0.4%, a decrease of 0% from the previous month.Two are single, affected by the fluctuation of international crude oil prices, the prices of gasoline, diesel and liquefied petroleum gas have dropped respectively9.7%, 10.5% and 4.3%.In addition, due to the significant reduction in travel during the epidemic, the price of air tickets also dropped by 28.5%.Pan Xiangdong, chief economist of New Era Securities, told the sauna. Yewang said that there were two main reasons for the decline in the rise in CPI in March. First, the domestic epidemic prevention and control situation was better than expected, and there was no second peak in the rework tide.This has also accelerated the resumption of production and production by transportation and production enterprises, which has greatly eased the contradiction between supply and demand for food prices for two months, and the price increase of vegetables and other foods has dropped significantly.In addition, international oil prices plummeted in March, and transportation and communications prices continued to fall3.8% also drove the CPI growth rate down.Image source: National Bureau of Statistics website.The pork price fell for the first time in the year, and the CPI growth rate in the second quarter may still drop. From the above data, it is also obvious that the pork price is stabilizing recently, and the pork price even fell by 6 in March.9%, this is the first month-on-month decline this year, and the annual increase in pork prices has dropped by 18%.8 averages.Pan Xiangdong believes that the decline in pork prices mainly includes the central budget reserve meat to ease the supply pressure; some low-priced pigs in the north are transported to the south, which lowers the price of pork in the south; March is the low season for pork consumption, and prices generally decrease and schools graduallyThe start of school has led to a slow recovery in collective consumption. However, due to the start of the “pig cycle” in the same period last year, pork prices have not been off-season, and the high base has also reduced pork price increases for three months.Indeed, as of April 9th, the relevant departments have released frozen pork 13 times since this year, and the amount has gradually been increased to 27 units.The launching activity continued, and the Air Force’s Huachu Network issued a notice saying that today it replaced the bidding transaction and put 2 into the central reserve frozen pork.Wang Jianhui told the sauna and Yeewang that starting from April, food price increases will decline, and the pull-down action on the price level will also appear. At the same time, the recent decline in international oil prices to the decline in terminal consumer prices will also affect the price.The rise has a regular effect. Overall, the increase in the second quarter is the CPI increase continued to decline.However, Wang Jianhui also expressed the reduction. He said that the overall price increase was temporarily cancelled, not only because the CPI and growth rate fell, but also because the demand side fell, causing the price level to weaken.From the data, the service industry price increased by 1 in March this year.1%, while the same period last year was an increase of 2%. At the same time, the core CPI weakened at the same time, and the long-term growth rate in March was 1.2%, compared with 1 in the same period last year.At 8%, under the current uncertain economic recovery prospects, demand will continue to remain weak. The combination of these conditions also shows that under weak demand, deflationary pressures are gradually emerging.”In the future, the medium-term macro-policy should at least be prepared to deal with deflation, and gradually prepare for both hands, more likely to need to prevent deflation at this stage.”Wang Jianhui thinks.Will more than a dozen countries restrict food exports and subsequently increase prices?It is worth mentioning that recently, against the backdrop of the global spread of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic, more than ten countries have introduced relevant measures to restrict food exports.For example, Vietnam announced that from March 24 this year, rice products are prohibited from exporting in any form; Serbia has stopped exporting goods such as sunflower oil; Cambodia will ban white and rice exports from April 5, except for fragrant rice.Various predictions have made people inevitably reduce their conventional food security issues. Wang Bin, deputy director of the Consumer Promotion Department of the Ministry of Commerce, said on April 2 that evolution, the average annual consumption of local rations is more than 200 million tons. Last year, wheat, corn and riceThree major staple stock balances 2.More than 800 million tons can be fully self-sufficient, and no imports will cause domestic food supply.Domestic grain imports are mainly based on feed grains such as soybeans and coarse grains. Imported rice and wheat only account for 1% and 2% of the total domestic consumption, mainly due to variety exchange and adjustment.So, will this increase in exports push up subsequent food prices?Pan Xiangdong believes that the African desert locust may lead to a further reduction in international food supply. As the epidemic is still spreading globally, the demand for food continues to increase, and international food prices are under pressure.”Although food reserves are relatively sufficient, the rise in international food prices will push up domestic food prices.”Pan Xiangdong further stated that at the same time, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs mentioned that” these major crop pests and diseases in this year are generally on a higher priority, and the degree may be heavier than that of the previous year. “”A reoccurring situation”, nymphal infestation leads to a reduction in domestic food supply, and the impact on food prices may be relatively speaking. However, since the weight of food in CPI has dropped significantly in previous years, the impact on CPI may not be significant.Pork prices.Wang Jianhui believes that the restriction of grain exports is a medium-to-short term extension. Once the recent restrictions on the import and export of medical equipment are more of a preventive measure, there is no evidence that this will affect the current domestic grain supply.”The food production cycle is reduced. Now the food we eat is actually produced last year or the previous year, and last year, the food of the previous year did not have a refund receipt, so this year’s market supply will not be affected.Among them, there may be local disturbance factors, some say that logistics has been affected by the epidemic, etc., but all countries keep logistics running normally, so the overall impact will not be too great.Wang Jianhui further stated that restricting grain exports in some countries is more disturbing to the domestic market. Such disturbances are not necessarily lasting. At the turn of spring and summer, the green and yellow are not connected. In summer, winter wheat will enter the harvest season.It should alleviate this short-term worry.Sauna, Ye Wang Pan Yichun Editor Zhao Ze proofreading Li Shihui